After an NHL Shootout Loss: Do Teams Win the Next Game?
Twenty seasons of NHL shootout losses show that the next game behaves almost exactly as team strength predicts. The real signals sit in the schedule, not the skills contest.
Written by Erik LindqvistIce hockey analystAfter an NHL team loses a shootout, how often does it win its next regular-season game, and is that different from what the ratings expected?
NHL regular season 2005-06 to 2024-25, 47,368 team-games with a next game
- 149.4%Next-game win rate after a shootout loss
- 249.7%Rating forecast for those next games
- 32,451Shootout losses with a next game
- 450.5%Next-game win rate after a shootout win
A shootout loss feels like a theft. The team skated sixty-five minutes level, then lost a coin-flip contest of breakaways. Bettors often assume one of two things: a bruised team that sags, or a wounded one that bites back. I wanted to know whether either story holds up over 2,451 cases from the shootout era.
The headline answer is flat. Shootout losers won 49.4% of their next regular-season games, against a rating forecast of 49.7%. That gap is well inside the ±2.0-point range, so the shootout itself tells you very little. The useful detail is in the splits, and that is where I spend my time before anything reaches my ice hockey tips page.
Aftermath · 01How the last game ended barely moves the next one
This chart sets the rating forecast against the actual next-game win rate for six ways a game can end. Read each row as a dumbbell. If the two dots sit together, the market of team strength already had it right. After a shootout loss the dots almost touch: 49.7% expected, 49.4% delivered. After a shootout win the two are identical at 50.5%.
The spread across the whole chart is narrow. Regulation winners won 51.4% next time and regulation losers 48.6%, and both rows sit within a fraction of their forecasts. That tells me the ratings are doing the work. Good teams win more often after any result because they are good teams.
View the data: next-game win % by how the last game ended
| Forecast | Actual | 95% range | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation win (18,265 games, gap −0.2) | 51.6% | 51.4% | ±0.7 |
| Overtime win (2,970 games, gap +1.1) | 50.8% | 51.9% | ±1.8 |
| Shootout win (2,452 games, gap 0.0) | 50.5% | 50.5% | ±2 |
| Shootout loss (2,451 games, gap −0.3) | 49.7% | 49.4% | ±2 |
| Overtime loss (2,970 games, gap −1.4) | 49.2% | 47.8% | ±1.8 |
| Regulation loss (18,260 games, gap +0.2) | 48.4% | 48.6% | ±0.7 |
The only row that catches my eye is the overtime loss: 47.8% actual against a 49.2% forecast, a gap of −1.4. Even that sits inside its ±1.8 range, so I treat it as a lean to watch rather than an edge. The shootout loss row gives you no reason to fade or back a team on the result alone.
Aftermath · 02Next-game results after a shootout loss mirror any normal game
Win percentage hides how games end, and that matters if you price regulation-time markets or overtime props. This chart breaks the next game into regulation wins, OT/SO wins, OT/SO losses and regulation losses. Shootout losers took a regulation win 37.6% of the time, close to the 38.5% seen across all games.
Their extra-time share is also ordinary. An OT/SO win came 11.8% of the time against 11.5% for the full sample. No sign of a team that drags itself into another tight, low-event game, and no sign of one that blows the next opponent away.
View the data: how the next game ends after a shootout loss
| Regulation win | OT/SO win | OT/SO loss | Regulation loss | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shootout win | 37.7% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 37.8% |
| Shootout loss | 37.6% | 11.8% | 11.6% | 39.0% |
| Overtime loss | 37.2% | 10.6% | 11.4% | 40.8% |
| Regulation loss | 37.6% | 11.0% | 11.4% | 40.0% |
| All games | 38.5% | 11.5% | 11.5% | 38.5% |
For a three-way bettor this is the cleanest finding. Draw-in-regulation pricing after a shootout loss does not need adjusting for the previous night's drama.
Aftermath · 03Home, road and rest split the shootout losers
The table is where I look for anything usable. Venue produces the widest gaps. With the next game at home, shootout losers won 53.7% against a 56.2% forecast, a gap of −2.5. On the road they won 44.9% against 42.7%, a gap of +2.2. The ratings seem to lean slightly too hard on home ice for this group, though both gaps sit only just outside the overall ±2.0 range and the samples are about half the size.
Rest is the other lever, and it is the one I trust most because it fits how hockey works. When the next game came the following day, shootout losers won 45.4% of 394 games, under a 47.2% forecast. With two or more days off they won 50.2%, almost exactly on forecast. A shootout means sixty-five minutes plus a skills contest, and the back-to-back often brings a backup goaltender.
| Split | Games | Forecast | Won next | Gap | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All shootout losses | 2,451 | 49.7% | 49.4% | −0.3 | 2.02 |
| Next game at home | 1,263 | 56.2% | 53.7% | −2.5 | 1.86 |
| Next game on the road | 1,188 | 42.7% | 44.9% | +2.2 | 2.23 |
| 2005-06 to 2014-15 | 1,559 | 49.9% | 49.3% | −0.6 | 2.03 |
| 2015-16 to 2024-25 | 892 | 49.2% | 49.8% | +0.6 | 2.01 |
| Next game the following day | 394 | 47.2% | 45.4% | −1.8 | 2.20 |
| Next game after 2+ days | 2,057 | 50.1% | 50.2% | +0.1 | 1.99 |
The era split is a non-story: 49.3% in the earlier decade and 49.8% in the 3-on-3 years, both within a hair of forecast. My honest caveat covers the whole table. These forecasts come from a team-rating model, not bookmaker prices, so real lines can differ, and splits of a few hundred games carry wide ranges.
What happens next
- Ignore the shootout itself
Shootout losers won 49.4% next time against a 49.7% forecast, so price the team on strength and goaltending, not the previous result.
- Check the back-to-back
On the following day shootout losers won only 45.4% against a 47.2% forecast. Confirm the starting goaltender before you take a short price.
- Respect the road dog
On the road shootout losers beat their 42.7% forecast with a 44.9% win rate. That is a mild lean, not a reason to bet without a price above 2.23.
Questions bettors ask
Do NHL teams bounce back after losing a shootout?
Not in any meaningful way. Across 2,451 cases they won 49.4% of their next games, almost level with the 49.7% rating forecast.
What are fair odds on a team after a shootout loss?
From the actual 49.4% win rate the fair decimal price is 2.02. A team at home in that spot has a fair price of 1.86, and on the road it is 2.23.
Does a back-to-back hurt teams after a shootout loss?
It appears to. Shootout losers playing the following day won 45.4% of 394 games, while those with two or more days off won 50.2%.
I write ice hockey previews from a Scandinavian perspective, with deep focus on goaltending, special teams, and the line matchups that quietly decide most games.
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